The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped crucial oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers hardly ever come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding brand-new reserves have the potential to throw governments' long-lasting preparation into mayhem.
Whatever the reality, rising long term global needs seem particular to outstrip production in the next years, especially offered the high and rising expenses of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a situation, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising rates drive this technology to the forefront, one of the richest prospective production areas has been absolutely ignored by investors up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a major player in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured mostly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy costs, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing producer of natural gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and relatively scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have mainly inhibited their ability to cash in on increasing international energy demands up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their heightened need to generate winter season electrical energy has led to autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn seriously affecting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these 3 downstream nations do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has become a major producer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian federal government authorities, provided the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser degree Astana for those durable financiers ready to bet on the future, specifically as a plant native to the region has already shown itself in trials.
Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies currently investigating how to produce it in business quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the first Asian carrier to explore flying on fuel obtained from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's functional efficiency capability and potential commercial viability.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another benefit of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is squandered as after processing, the plant's particles can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly great livestock feed candidate that is just now getting recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."
Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: historical proof suggests it has been cultivated in Europe for at least three centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a broad range of outcomes of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can develop issues in germination to accomplish an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina's potential could allow Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the country's attempts at agrarian reform because achieving independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric industry. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also ordered by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-sufficient in cotton; 5 decades later it had actually become a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, concentrated in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.
Try as it may to diversify, in the absence of options Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million loads yearly, which brings in more than $1 billion while constituting roughly 60 percent of the country's difficult currency income.
Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's instructions for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton utilizes about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet coordinators to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into ineffective irrigation canals, resulting in the significant shrinkage of the rivers' last destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, as soon as the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has diminished to one-quarter its initial size in among the 20th century's worst eco-friendly disasters.
And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently described camelina's service model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230."
Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering facilities and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign investment. U.S. investors have the cash and access to the expertise of America's land grant universities. What is specific is that biofuel's market share will grow over time; less particular is who will profit of establishing it as a viable issue in Central Asia.
If the current past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.
But while the Japanese flight experiments show Asian interest, American investors have the academic knowledge, if they want to follow the Silk Road into developing a new market. Certainly anything that minimizes water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the lot of their agrarian population will receive most careful factor to consider from Central Asia's governments, and farming and vegetable oil processing plants are not just more affordable than pipelines, they can be built more quickly.
And jatropha curcas's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.
